The Impact of Trump's Import Tariff Policy: How is the Condition of the Disparities in Abnormal Returns and Stock Trading Volumes in Indonesia?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55208/bistek.v18i2.404Keywords:
abnormal return, stocks, trading volumes, trump import, textile industryAbstract
This study aims to examine the differences in abnormal returns and stock trading volumes before and after the announcement of the import tariff policy by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. The import tariff policy implemented by President Trump on April 2, 2025, has triggered global trade tensions, particularly between the United States and its trading partners. This protectionist policy not only impacts the international trade sector but also influences financial market sentiment in various countries, including Indonesia. The fluctuations resulting from this policy have the potential to generate abnormal returns as well as unusual changes in stock trading volumes. The population in this study consists of 17 companies from the textile industry listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sampling technique used is saturated sampling, meaning that the entire population is taken as the sample for the study, with an event window of 8 days before and 8 days after the announcement of the import tariff policy by President Donald Trump on April 2, 2025. The data analysis method employed is the paired sample difference test. The results indicate a difference in abnormal returns in the periods before and after the announcement of the import tariff policy. Conversely, no difference was found in stock trading volumes before and after the tariff announcement. The import tariff policy announced by President Donald Trump has a complex impact on financial markets and the economy by influencing investor risk expectations, reflected in changes in abnormal returns resulting from increased import costs and disruptions to global supply chains, thereby causing market volatility despite no changes in trading volume. This suggests market anticipation or the influence of other more dominant economic factors, while macroeconomically, the policy can slow growth, alter international trade patterns, and trigger protectionism, which generates long-term uncertainty for market participants and textile industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
References
Alvinta, B. (2025). Dampak Kebijakan Tarif Trump di Pasar Saham Eropa, AS & Indonesia. Rankia Indonesia. https://rankia.id/kebijakan-tarif-trump-impor/
Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 17(2), 223–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(86)90065-6
He, F., Lucey, B., & Wang, Z. (2021). Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market-evidence from China-US trade conflict. Finance Research Letters, 40, 101753. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101753
Franston, F., & Amna, L. S. (2025). Analysis of The Difference in Average Abnormal Returns of Big Banks Stocks Before and After The Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Changes (Study of Events In 2022-2024). International Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics and Social Sciences, 3(01), 394–403. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61990/ijamesc.v3i1.463 e-ISSN
Gaies, B. (2025). Asymmetric effects of tariffs on stock prices: evidence from the US. Economics Letters, 112527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112527
Guedes, L. P. F., Nossa, S. N., Monte-mor, D. S., & Funchal, B. (2024). Disclosure Voluntary, Abnormal Return, and The Effect of Differentiated Levels of Corporate Governance in The Publicly Held Companies Listed on B3. Gestão & Planejamento, 25, 46–61. https://doi.org/10.53706/gep.v.25.7867
Karpoff, J. (1987). The Relation Between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22, 109–126. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330874
Mantulangi, D. P., Monoarfa, M. A. S., & Dungga, M. F. (2024). Analisis Perbedaan Return Saham, Abnormal Return, Harga Saham, dan Volume Perdagangan Saham di Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Economic Reviews Journal, 3(1), 452–472. https://doi.org/10.56709/mrj.v3i1.163
Martins, A. M., & Cró, S. (2024). Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(6), 1182–1198. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0390
Muhamad, N. (2025). IHSG Menguat, Kembali Tembus 6.700. Databoks. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/pasar/statistik/680f59eddac85/ihsg-menguat-kembali-tembus-6700-senin-28-april-2025
Mulyono, N. H., & Fitriani, A. (2024). Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Perdagangan Saham: Struktur Modal, Profitabilitas, dan Likuiditas. Jurnal Integrasi AKuntansi Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 123–132.
Mustofa, Moch. S., & Widodo, A. (2024). Perbandingan Harga Saham, TVA Dan Abnormal Return Sebelum Dan Sesudah Stock Split. REVITALISASI: Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 13(2), 456–462.
Mutiah, M., Andi Ayu Frihatni, & Purnamasari, R. (2024). the Influence of Market Ratio on Cumulative Abnormal Returns in Companies Listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (Jii). Islamic Financial And Accounting Review, 2(2), 63–78. https://doi.org/10.35905/ifar.v2i2.10606
Alvinta, B. (2025). Dampak Kebijakan Tarif Trump di Pasar Saham Eropa, AS & Indonesia. Rankia Indonesia. https://rankia.id/kebijakan-tarif-trump-impor/
Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 17(2), 223–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(86)90065-6
He, F., Lucey, B., & Wang, Z. (2021). Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market-evidence from China-US trade conflict. Finance Research Letters, 40, 101753. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101753
Franston, F., & Amna, L. S. (2025). Analysis of The Difference in Average Abnormal Returns of Big Banks Stocks Before and After The Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Changes (Study of Events In 2022-2024). International Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics and Social Sciences, 3(01), 394–403. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61990/ijamesc.v3i1.463 e-ISSN
Gaies, B. (2025). Asymmetric effects of tariffs on stock prices: evidence from the US. Economics Letters, 112527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112527
Guedes, L. P. F., Nossa, S. N., Monte-mor, D. S., & Funchal, B. (2024). Disclosure Voluntary, Abnormal Return, and The Effect of Differentiated Levels of Corporate Governance in The Publicly Held Companies Listed on B3. Gestão & Planejamento, 25, 46–61. https://doi.org/10.53706/gep.v.25.7867
Karpoff, J. (1987). The Relation Between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22, 109–126. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330874
Mantulangi, D. P., Monoarfa, M. A. S., & Dungga, M. F. (2024). Analisis Perbedaan Return Saham, Abnormal Return, Harga Saham, dan Volume Perdagangan Saham di Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Economic Reviews Journal, 3(1), 452–472. https://doi.org/10.56709/mrj.v3i1.163
Martins, A. M., & Cró, S. (2024). Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(6), 1182–1198. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2023-0390
Muhamad, N. (2025). IHSG Menguat, Kembali Tembus 6.700. Databoks. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/pasar/statistik/680f59eddac85/ihsg-menguat-kembali-tembus-6700-senin-28-april-2025
Mulyono, N. H., & Fitriani, A. (2024). Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Perdagangan Saham: Struktur Modal, Profitabilitas, dan Likuiditas. Jurnal Integrasi AKuntansi Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 123–132.
Mustofa, Moch. S., & Widodo, A. (2024). Perbandingan Harga Saham, TVA Dan Abnormal Return Sebelum Dan Sesudah Stock Split. REVITALISASI: Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 13(2), 456–462.
Mutiah, M., Andi Ayu Frihatni, & Purnamasari, R. (2024). the Influence of Market Ratio on Cumulative Abnormal Returns in Companies Listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (Jii). Islamic Financial And Accounting Review, 2(2), 63–78. https://doi.org/10.35905/ifar.v2i2.10606
Negara, A. K., Humairoh, H., & Kurniastuti, C. (2024). Analisis Perbedaan Harga Saham, Volume Perdagangan Saham dan Return Saham Sebelum dan Sesudah Stock Split pada Perusahaan yang Terdaftar di BEI. JMB : Jurnal Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 13(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.31000/jmb.v13i1.10905
Romadhon, S., & Septiyanti, R. (2024). Analisis Perbedaan Abnormal Return Saham dan Volume Perdagangan Saham Sebelum dan Sesudah Stock Split. Economics and Digital Business Review, 5(2), 432–443.
Trisnaningsih, K. A., & Ayu, N. N. D. (2024). Analisis Perbandingan Volume Perdagangan dan Abnormal Return Saham Sebelum dan Sesudah Stock Split. E-Jurnal Manajemen Universitas Udayana, 13(7), 1202. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2024.v13.i07.p08
Yilmazkuday, H. (2025). US Tariffs and Stock Prices. Finance Research Letters, 107708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107708
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Muhammad Ridha Ramli, Sri Winarsih Ramadana, Fitrian Rizky (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
